FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP SUBDIVISION

Around FCS: Is it too late for 20 teams this year?

By David Coulson, FCS Executive Director Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Like a lot of folks, I have been perfectly happy through the years with a 16-team playoff for the Football Championship Subdivision.
But looking at the teams battling for the 2009 playoffs, it might have been better to have moved to 20 teams this season.
The NCAA Division I football playoff committee is going to be faced with some tough decision when they meet in a little over a week in Indianapolis to choose the field for the 2009 championship tournament.
There is always a team or two that is disappointed at not making the field, but there could be several quality clubs on the outside looking in when the 16-team field is announced on Nov. 22.
Southern Illinois became the first team to guarantee its inclusion when the Salukis beat South Dakota State 34-13 last Saturday to win the Missouri Valley Football Conference automatic bid.
They could be joined by two to four other teams this weekend.
Appalachian State and Elon will decide the Southern Conference auto bid head- to-head on Saturday at Elon, while Holy Cross hosts Lafayette with the Patriot League berth on the line.
South Carolina State can wrap up the MEAC's playoff spot with a win over Morgan State on Saturday, while Montana can clinch the Big Sky Conference's auto bid by beating Northern Colorado.
South Carolina State would need to lose twice, to North Carolina A&T as well as Morgan State, to blow the auto bid. Montana would have to lose to UNC and Montana State to lose its auto bid.
Bids in the Colonial Athletic Association, the Ohio Valley Conference and the Southland Conference will have to wait another week, though things should get a lot clearer after this weekend's games.
Both the CAA and the Southland still have four teams battling it out for league championships.
Here is a breakdown of each of those three murky leagues.
COLONIAL ATHELTIC ASSOCIATION In the CAA, William & Mary hosts New Hampshire on Saturday, with the loser being all but eliminated from the title race. If William & Mary survives that game, the Tribe will face another elimination game for a share of the title at Richmond the following weekend.
Officials from the CAA will first break any ties in the North and South Divisions and then will look at the remaining two teams' head-to-head results.
New Hampshire can make things simple by winning its final two games at William & Mary and at home against Maine. If New Hampshire is tied with Villanova, UNH will get the automatic bid because of a 28-24 victory over VU.
If New Hampshire finishes tied for first with Richmond, there will be a coin toss to determine the auto bid.
Richmond has only William & Mary left in the CAA, while Villanova closes at Towson and at home against Delaware.
Villanova would win tiebreakers against either William & Mary, or Richmond due to head-to-head wins over both.
Not only is a playoff berth at stake for the CAA champion, but also the likelihood of a top-four seed in the tournament.
All four of these top-10-ranked teams are expected to earn bids no matter how their season's finish.
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE Eastern Illinois is in the driver's seat in what is almost sure to be a one- bid league. The Panthers are in first at 5-1 in league and can clinch the title simply by winning two games at home against Tennessee-Martin and Tennessee State.
Should the Panthers lose one or both games, Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee Tech could steal the auto bid, but the road will be difficult.
EKU has one more conference game at Jacksonville State to close out the year, but if the Colonels can pull that off and get a loss from EIU, they hold the head-to-head advantage over the Panthers after a 36-31 early-season win.
Tennessee Tech must beat Jacksonville State on the road and Murray State at home and get a JSU victory over EKU, along with two EIU losses to get the auto bid.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE It seems like the Southland is always looking at this type of mess at the top of its standings, but the leaders will be cut in half on Saturday as all four play in head-to-head games.
McNeese State travels to Texas State and Stephen F. Austin goes to Southeastern Louisiana on Saturday.
The following weekend, McNeese State hosts Central Arkansas, Southeastern Louisiana is at home against Nicholls State, Stephen F. Austin is on the road at arch-rival Northwestern State and Texas State hosts rival Sam Houston State.
In previous games, McNeese State lost to SFA 16-13, but beat Southeastern Louisiana 36-35, Texas State lost to Southeastern Louisiana 51-50 in overtime, but beat SFA 28-7.
LOOKING AT THE AT-LARGE BIDS Once the eight auto bids are determined, the difficult process of deciding the eight at-large berths will begin.
It seems almost certain that the CAA will grab three of the at-large bids, with the MVFC likely to snag two others for Northern Iowa and South Dakota State.
Northern Iowa can finish 8-3 by beating Western Illinois at home and Illinois State on the road. The Panthers have three quality losses, by one point to Iowa and in conference play against SIU and SDSU, but don't have the marquee victory that would push them over the top.
UNI (6-3) is ranked eighth nationally in the Gridiron Power Index (GPI) and is currently 11th in The Sports Network poll.
South Dakota State is currently 7-2, with a 24-14 home win over UNI and a quality loss to Southern Illinois.
The other loss for the Jackrabbits was a 21-14 defeat at Cal Poly when the Mustangs were ranked 19th nationally and before Cal Poly suffered a number of debilitating injuries. Another factor in that loss was that SDSU lost starting senior quarterback Ryan Crawford to a knee injury.
The Jackrabbits, who are ranked 12th nationally and are ninth in the GPI, could almost stamp an at-large bid in their name by beating Minnesota this weekend, or at least by playing competitively against the Gophers. SDSU would also need a road win over Western Illinois in the regular-season finale.
You would also have to think that the loser of the Appalachian State-Elon game will also earn an at-large bid.
Appalachian State's only losses came in the final seconds to East Carolina (29-24) and McNeese State (40-35). Since then, the Mountaineers (7-2) have rattled off seven wins in a row by an average margin of 21 points per game and is ranked No. 1 nationally in total offense.
ASU is ranked No. 7 nationally and is 10th in the computer-and poll-based GPI and also has the clout that comes from three national championships in the past four years and nine playoff appearances in the past 11 years.
Elon (8-1) is looking for its first FCS playoff appearance after late-season collapses in 2007-08. The Phoenix dropped a 35-7 decision to Wake Forest in the third week of the season, but have won six games in a row since.
Elon is ranked sixth both in the poll and the GPI and has shown dramatic improvement this season in terms of defense and balance on offense.
Appalachian State closes the regular season at home against Western Carolina and Elon travels to Samford.
LIFE ON THE BIG SKY BUBBLE If those teams all take care of business and wrap up at-large bids, that will leave a solid group of nine teams fighting for the final two bids. And that doesn't include several schools with four losses.
The Big Sky Conference has two teams with legitimate playoff hopes, Montana State and Eastern Washington.
Montana State (6-3) is at home for its final two games against Sacramento State and Montana and could still win the BSC auto bid, if Montana loses to Northern Colorado and then falls to the Bobcats.
MSU was 30th in points in The Sports Network poll this week after being ranked earlier in the season. The Bobcats are 23rd in the GPI.
The Bobcats have a loss to Michigan State and one non-Division I-win against Dixie State, as well as an overtime victory over South Dakota. But Montana State beat then-No. 11-ranked Weber State and still have a shot to make an impression against Montana.
The Brawl of the Wild rivalry game with the Grizzlies could serve as a play-in game for the Bobcats to make the tournament field.
Eastern Washington (6-3) wasn't even sure it would be eligible for the playoffs until an NCAA appeals committee reversed the infractions committee's postseason ban on the Eagles a few weeks ago.
EWU is ranked 18th nationally and is 13th in the GPI, the highest computer ranking of any of the bubble teams. The Eagles lost to Cal and beat non-D-I Western Oregon and their best FCS victory was a 35-24 decision against Montana State at home.
Eastern Washington's other two losses were to quality ranked opponents, Montana (41-34) and Weber State (31-13). The Eagles must win on the road at Southern Utah and Northern Arizona to remain in the playoff debate.
WILL THE SOUTHLAND GET A SECOND BID? If McNeese State or Stephen F.Austin find themselves in need of an at-large bid, the Southland might snap up one of those bubble bids, but Texas State and Southeastern Louisiana would likely be longshots.
McNeese State had a narrow 42-32 loss to Tulane and has one of the bigger non- conference wins of the season with its victory over Appalachian State. The Cowboys (7-2) are ranked 10th in the poll and 17th in the GPI and a narrow win over Division II Henderson State seems like an eternity ago.
Stephen F.Austin (7-2) fell just short of an FBS victory when it lost 31-23 to SMU and also lost to Texas State. The Lumberjacks also have a meaningless victory over Texas College that will hurt, but they are ranked 15th nationally and are tied for 19th in the GPI.
Texas State had a Division II win against Angelo State to go with a 56-21 loss to TCU. The Bobcats are 25th in the poll and 27th in the GPI and do have victories over two ranked teams, Central Arkansas (27-24) and SFA, but it may not be enough.
Southeastern Louisiana (6-3) has almost no chance of earning an at-large bid with a pair of lover-division wins over Texas A&M-Commerce and Union, KY., as well as a loss to transitional South Dakota. The wins over ranked Texas State and Central Arkansas teams won't overcome the schedule warts for a team that is tied for 31st in the GPI.
In the end, all of those sub-Division-I games could kill the Southland's hopes of an at-large berth.
DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN Liberty (7-2) is back in familiar territory, hoping that two more wins will lift the Flames to their first playoff berth. Last year, Liberty thought it had won a berth by taking what should have amounted to a play-in game with Elon, 26-3.
But the Flames were snubbed and are back this year on similar footing. Wins at Gardner-Webb and Stony Brook would give Liberty a third consecutive Big South title, but the Flames are less talented than the 2008 version and don't own a signature victory.
The closest thing to it is a 19-13 win on the road against a Lafayette squad that it 8-1 and is now 20th ranked and playing Holy Cross for the Patriot League title.
But the Flames don't have the albatross of a bad loss, like last year's debacle at Presbyterian. The two defeats this season came in a competitive game against West Virginia (33-20) and to James Madison (24-10) when the Dukes were ranked seventh nationally.
Liberty has climbed to 16th nationally and is 21st in the GPI and could climb further in the poll with two more wins.
HOPING FOR SOME UPSETS As good of a season that Florida A&M has had, the Rattlers will need some serious help to reach the playoffs.
FAMU has a pair of quality losses to South Carolina State (35-20) and Miami (48-16), but no big wins to hang its helmet on. Strength of schedule will likely derail any hopes the Rattlers have of an at-large bid.
The best victory for FAMU, which is ranked 22nd nationally and is 33rd in the GPI is a 31-28 overtime decision against Morgan State.
PATRIOT GAMES The Patriot League would like to think that its runner-up will get an at-large bid, something that hasn't happened since Lafayette grabbed the final berth with a late upset of Lehigh in 2005 to knock Youngstown State out of the field.
The PL had three teams ranked in the top-25, with Holy Cross (8-1) at No. 13, Lafayette (8-1) at No. 20 and Colgate (8-2) at No. 24. But one of those teams is likely to drop when Holy Cross and Lafayette meet on Saturday and that could imperil the league's shot at a second bid.
Holy Cross dropped its only game at Brown, 34-31. That might not sound that impressive, but the Bears are exceptionally tough at home.
The Crusaders, who are 25th in the GPI, haven't played an overly strong schedule, but they do hold wins over Harvard (27-20) and a CAA foe, Northeastern (42-21).
The win over Northeastern was more lopsided than the score indicated and was comparable to William & Mary's 34-14 decision and New Hampshire's 48-21 victory over the Huskies.
Lafayette, which is 24th in the GPI, has four wins over Ivy League opponents, including a 20-17 overtime victory against Penn and a 35-18 win at Harvard. Penn and Harvard are playing Saturday for the Ivy League title.
In another game-to-game comparison, No. 3-ranked Villanova struggled to a 14-3 win at Penn that was similar to Lafayette's home win against the Quakers.
Colgate looked like a possible playoff team earlier in the season when it rolled off seven straight victories and rose to No. 17 in the poll. But the Raiders dropped games to Holy Cross and Lafayette and now would be a dark horse to make the postseason.
Colgate doesn't have the signature wins of other possible playoff teams and is ranked just 41st in the GPI.
LONGSHOTS Delaware (6-3) still has a heartbeat for an at-large bid, but the Blue Hens would have to beat both Navy and Delaware to get it. The Blue Hens have a Division II victory over West Chester, but are ranked 23rd by The Sports Network and are 14th in the GPI.
Weber State and Northern Arizona battle on Saturday as four-loss teams, but tough schedules, with two FBS games each, have made the tight-rope ride too difficult for these two talented teams.
WSU (7-4) had opportunities to beat both Wyoming and Colorado State to begin the season and also lost on the final play to Montana State. The Wildcats are ranked 19th and are 16th in the GPI, but they don't have enough wins.
Northern Arizona lost competitive games against Arizona and Mississippi and fell in overtime to Montana and still has tough games against Weber State and Eastern Washington remaining. That tough schedule has left the Lumberjacks with a No. 19 GPI rating, but too few wins.

11/12 19:36:47 ET