HORSE BETTING

• Breeders’ Cup Longshots: Horses Worth a Look

  Posted on Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT by Greg Melikov

  
  

  Favorites generally win one-third of the time at American racetracks. During the current Oak Tree meeting, however, top choices scored 40 percent through Oct. 29.
   
  The Breeders’ Cup, dating back to the inaugural event in 1984, has produced winning favorites 34 ½ percent in 196 races.
   
  The biggest upset in BC history came in the ’93 Classic when European import Arcangues triumphed at a whopping  133-1.
   
  Eight of 14 winners last year at Santa Anita returned double-digit payoffs. The highest return was compliments of Desert Code who paid $75 on the front end, producing a $29,663.30 superfecta.
   
  In the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, two horses that won at the 1 1/16 miles are capable of springing an upset: Smart Seattle, 8-1, and Lisa’s Kitten, 12-1.
   
  In the Filly and Mare Sprint, Evita Argentina appears the best of three 20-1 shots with a chance off her 3 for 6 record on synthetic surfaces despite the presence of likely odds-on choice Ventura. A double-digit place payoff wouldn’t be bad either.
   
  The 8-1 Bridgetown boasts the best speed figure at the mile in the Juvenile Turf winning a graded stakes race at Woodbine.
   
  With all the front-running speed in the Sprint at six furlongs, Capt. Candyman Can at 15-1 could surprise in a wide-open race.
   
  Pulsion, 20-1, finished second to likely favorite Looking At Lucky at 1 1/16 miles in a recent prep at Santa Anita for the Juvenile. He has steadily improved in four starts. 
   
  Karelian at 20-1 looks interesting in the Mile. Four of his seven victories have been at a mile on the grass and he is 7 of 15 in career turf outings. Whatsthescript, 15-1, broke from post 11 last year and closed big time from 11th to third behind defending champ Goldikova. He’s 2-0-2 of 5 at Oak Tree, 4-0-2 on the grass lifetime.
   
  Neko Bay, 20-1, loves Santa Anita – he’s 4-2-0 for 6. Trainer John Sherriffs, who also sends out unbeaten Zenyatta against the boys in the Classic, is 30 percent winners in 99 graded stakes this year.
   
  If you’re looking for upsets in the Classic, consider a couple of 12-1 shots that rally from off the pace. Gio Ponti
  is the likely Eclipse turf champ off four Grade 1 victories on grass, including two a 1 ¼ miles. Richard’s Kid is 1-1-1
  in his last 3 on California synthetic courses. Trainer Bob Baffert is 26 percent winners from 231 entries in graded stakes races for ’08.